Look back to about one year (2015) before the last presidential election. The market already had a long bull run that started sometime in 2009. Then, there was a four year power boost stimulated by tax cuts, followed by a coronavirus "mini-recession" move and now a "mini-recovery."
I was bearish on the market after the tax cuts because I surmised that the Fed had artificially pumping up the markets. P/E ratios were already off the charts and earnings seemed to be good for the big guns and not so great for small-mid caps in general.
That said, a possible guide to find fair market value for ones portfolio with a 2 - 3 year forward projection into 2023-24, in general, is to take the value of your portfolio (each companies average share price 2015, 2020) and compare them to each other. These two years appear to be two pivot points for organic valuations in this warped time frame. Take the average of those two valuations and reduce by approximately 15% for historically upward trending stocks and 45% for downward trending shares just to be safe.
You may also want take into account any change in P/E ratios for your respective company shares, preferred shares outstanding and goodwill. This may give you a clue as to the more intangible revenue fluctuations and debt obligations including EBITDA that existed during this time frame.
Granted, some/many of your positions may have changed since 2015. This method will help you to evaluate your portfolio against current prices and to understand your own investment behavior over time.
Good luck!
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